South Africa’s G20 Presidency: a landmark summit amid geopolitical headwinds

Analysis

On 22 and 23 November, Johannesburg will host the G20, with South Africa becoming the first African nation to lead the intergovernment forum.

On 22 and 23 November, Johannesburg will host the G20, with South Africa becoming the first African nation to lead the intergovernment forum. While this represents a significant opportunity to bring the continent’s voice to the table, Pretoria’s presidency is hampered by a weakened multilateral system and mounting geopolitical tensions, making the task both promising and complex.

As the first African nation to hold the G20 presidency, South Africa is seizing this opportunity to assert the continent’s diplomatic and strategic weight. The summit is overshadowed by the absence of the heads of state from the US, China, and Russia, as well as by tensions surrounding a weakened multilateral system.
Pretoria is placing African and emerging market priorities at the centre of its agenda in a fragmented G20, focusing on South-South cooperation and coalition-building to rebuild a more inclusive form of multilateralism.
Its G20 presidency illustrates the rise of African influence on the global stage, further reinforced by the African Union’s permanent membership since 2023. However, it remains constrained by global imbalances and internal challenges, despite a genuine diplomatic window of opportunity.

About

Yaëlle Mbouopda Youmbi is an analyst at Concerto. Specialising in Central African geopolitical and security issues, Yaëlle focuses on strategic analysis and risk management across the region. Contact Yaëlle at her e-mail address, yy@concerto-pr.com, for more information on the subject, or to find out more about how Concerto can assist you.

South Africa at the G20: between powerful symbol and strategic opportunity amid tensions

An African presidency without the world’s economic giant This week’s summit has been overshadowed by the US’ absence amid the Trump administration’s escalating tensions with South Africa. While Vice President JD Vance had been expected to represent Washington, the US is officially boycotting the summit and will not send a delegation. This follows months of frosty diplomatic relations after the US made unsubstantiated accusations of white farmer persecution and “genocide” in South Africa — claims Pretoria has firmly rejected. The US’ imposition of 30% tariffs on South African exports in August 2025 — the highest tariff imposed on an African country, despite Pretoria being Washington’s leading trade partner on the continent — further dented bilateral relations. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping — whom South Africa had been hoping would attend — will be represented by Premier Li Qiang. Russian President Vladimir Putin is also skipping the summit, possibly due to the outstanding International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant. He will be represented instead by Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Office Maxim Oreshkin. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who led Russia’s presence at the last three G20 summits, has reportedly been somewhat sidelined by Putin in recent weeks after a planned US-Russia summit was abruptly cancelled. Pretoria aims to leverage the G20 to promote multilateralism and advance a Global South agenda, building on previous Global South presidencies. Its invitation to several African, Caribbean, and Asian countries to attend the summit—including Nigeria, Egypt, and Singapore—underscores its commitment to advancing a Global South agenda through representatives of diverse economies. While the US’ absence represents a blow to South Africa’s presidency, its decision to boycott the summit is less damaging than a participation designed to paralyse decision-making completely. However, the US has said it will oppose anything beyond a “Chair’s Statement”, refusing to endorse a “Leaders’ Declaration.” This would mark the first G20 summit since 2008—the inaugural summit—not to issue a consensus Leaders’ Declaration. Despite this, the US’s absence also created opportunities for European countries and China to fill the leadership gap. The former are broadly aligned with Pretoria’s G20 priorities, while China aims to showcase its commitment to the multilateral system — positioning itself in stark contrast to the US.

Advancing the African agenda: ambitions and obstacles

Strengthening African influence within a fragmented G20 As the first African nation to chair the G20, South Africa embodies the continent’s rise on the global stage, marking a significant diplomatic milestone and giving the continent a stronger voice. South Africa, the largest African economy, aims to assert its status as an emerging power and to promote African priorities, including climate change, debt, disaster resilience, critical minerals, and reform of international financial institutions. Under the theme ‘Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability’, Pretoria seeks to build on the momentum generated by Indonesia's (2022), India's (2023), and Brazil’s (2024) presidencies, and to anchor this dynamic at the 7th European Union-African Union summit in Luanda on the 24 and 25 November. The African Union was granted a permanent seat at the G20 in September 2023, under India’s presidency. This presidency also offers an opportunity for South Africa to highlight its relative political stability, economic attractiveness, and diplomatic experience, notably in regional mediation and peacekeeping operations, such as in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mozambique. Pretoria thus strives to place sustainable development, social inclusion, and intra-African cooperation at the heart of the G20, even as the global order remains marked by strong geopolitical turbulence and the fragmentation of international alliances. South Africa’s approach emphasises coalition-building, mediation, and active advocacy for Southern priorities, aiming to shape an African voice capable of forging an inclusive consensus. This strategy aligns with a long-term vision to rebuild multilateralism and address the structural imbalances inherited from the global economic order, notably by democratising financial governance and tackling Africa’s specific vulnerabilities. A significant focus of Pretoria’s approach is on debt reform and expanding access to innovative climate financing. As of 2025, 23 African countries are classified by the World Bank as being in debt distress or at high risk of debt distress. Despite growing global political fragmentation and the absence of key heads of state, the South African presidency must manage the risk of deadlock on major international issues while asserting an African narrative and strengthening the Global South’s agenda.

What concrete impacts, structural limitations, and prospects for the assertion of African agency?

Goal or mirage? The challenge of turning Africa’s ambition on the international stage into reality The central question remains: can this South African presidency, beyond its symbolic value, turn its ambitions into tangible progress for the continent? The task appears daunting in light of the competition between major powers, persistent systemic imbalances within the G20, and the US’ limited political engagement. Domestically, South Africa faces its own constraints—stagnant growth, social inequalities, unemployment, and internal political pressures—that could hinder the projection of its leadership. At the continental level, coordination among African states, often competing with one another, remains a prerequisite for any lasting consolidation of their collective influence. Yet, the “diplomatic vacuum” created by the partial disengagement of major powers provides African actors with a window of opportunity to assert themselves as agenda-setters and key intermediaries, in tune with the momentum of the African Union and the repositioning of the Global South in the international order. Rather than signalling a radical shift toward a global governance architecture that gives Africa a central role, the outcomes to date suggest that the continent’s inclusion remains mainly symbolic, constrained by the limited political and financial commitments of global powers. Nonetheless, the legacy of South Africa’s G20 presidency could mark a pivotal moment for emerging and African nations — a tangible opportunity to transform shared ambitions into coherent influence within the evolving global order. Sustaining the converging priorities shaped during the G20 and reinforcing them across forthcoming multilateral arenas will be essential to advancing a more balanced, representative, and resilient architecture of global governance. However, this momentum could be short-lived: as the summit ends, Ramaphosa will pass the G20 to an empty chair standing in for the next host, the US—ushering in priorities that diverge dramatically from South Africa’s.