About
Léonard Mbulle-Nziege is a Senior Consultant in Economic Intelligence at Concerto, based in Cape Town. He advises businesses on political risk, due diligence, and electoral analysis in Africa. Contact Léonard at
lnm@concerto-pr.com to learn more.
QUICK INSIGHTS
- The “reciprocal” tariffs spell the end of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
- Intra-African trade growth is expected to prevail in the medium term due to the ongoing rollout of the AfCFTA, as well as investments and reforms that are improving Africa’s trade ecosystem.
- There is significant scope to enhance intra-African trade by tackling structural barriers and harmonising trade regulations.
US tariff imposition disproportionately impacted African countries that export manufactured goods to the US
In total, tariffs were imposed on 52 out of 54 African countries, with Burkina Faso and Seychelles spared. The highest tariffs were imposed on Lesotho (50%), Madagascar (47%), Mauritius (40%), Botswana (38%), Angola (32%), and South Africa (31%). Lesotho and Madagascar have leveraged duty-free access to the US under AGOA to develop competitive textile industries, employing 30,000 and 180,000 individuals. South Africa—the US’ largest bilateral trade partner on the continent—was classified as a “worst offender” by Washington. This followed major diplomatic tensions, with the US suspending bilateral aid to South Africa in January and expelling its ambassador in March. In 2023, Africa’s most industrialised and diversified economy exported USD 3.5 billion in goods under AGOA, consisting primarily of vehicles, parts, and agricultural products.
The tariff decision effectively puts an end to AGOA, which is set to expire in September and is unlikely to be renewed by a Republican-dominated Congress. Nonetheless, Trump’s tariff exemptions for petroleum and critical minerals will provide some relief for resource-rich countries. Larger African economies such as Angola, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, and Nigeria are positioned to negotiate bilateral trade agreements with the US, though they are unlikely to be able to replicate the market access granted under AGOA.
Against this shifting geopolitical backdrop, pursuing intra-continental trade initiatives constitutes a key opportunity to mitigate the loss of trade opportunities with Washington over the medium term. The continent’s population of 1.3 billion and growth projected at 4% over the 2025-2028 period create a strong foundation that should be a strategic priority for the continent’s policy-makers.
Growing intra-African trade bodes well for regional integration and could help to offset some impacts of US protectionist measures
According to Afreximbank, intra-African trade increased by 7.7% to USD 208 billion in 2024, from USD 193 billion in 2023. Intra-continental commerce is forecast to grow annually by 6.6% from 2025 to 2028, attributed to the ongoing rollout of AfCFTA. Established in 2018, the framework, which has been signed by 53 out of 54 African countries, created the world’s largest free trade area. Related investment in infrastructure that facilitates cross-border movement, manufacturing, and the provision of services has also bolstered intra-African trade. Similarly, the adoption of regulatory reforms and coherent trade policies by governments has enhanced business environments.
These efforts have significantly benefited Africa’s largest economies, with South Africa accounting for 25% of intra-African exports and 12% of imports, followed by Egypt, Nigeria, and Côte d’Ivoire. Morocco, alongside resource-rich countries including Algeria, Angola, and Libya, can potentially become leading actors in intra-continental trade. Regionally, Southern Africa registered the highest intra-continental trade figures (USD 58.1 billion in 2024), followed by West Africa (USD 52.8 billion) and East Africa (USD 46.8 billion). North Africa and Central Africa accounted for USD 31 billion and USD 19.4 billion in intra-Africa trade.
Nonetheless, intra-African trade and the AfCFTA’s full potential remain hindered by factors such as infrastructure deficits, cross-border movement barriers, a multitude of different currencies, and the non-harmonisation of trade regulations. Furthermore, prevailing conflicts in the Great Lakes, Horn of Africa, and Sahel hamper trade activity in these regions. Tackling these structural challenges will be central to strengthening intra-African value chains and shielding the continent from geopolitical shocks.
The Trump administration's Africa engagement strategy is sending shockwaves through the continent’s trade ecosystem. Against this backdrop, African financial institutions, development partners, and the private sector must double down on their commitment to drive industrialisation, enhance resilience, and accelerate growth through greater regional integration. The AfCFTA should be the cornerstone of this ambitious agenda.
