South Africa’s G20 Presidency: a poisoned chalice or an opportunity to project the country’s diplomacy

Analysis

South Africa’s G20 presidency – under the theme of “solidarity, equality, and sustainability” – aims to assert itself as a credible voice for the Global South. However, its ambitions have been overshadowed by bilateral tensions with the US, alongside a geopolitical landscape characterised by growing opposition towards multilateralism. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ability to accelerate global structural reforms will be hindered by multiple challenges, including competing global priorities, aid reductions, debt negotiations with private creditors, and difficulties unlocking much-needed climate finance.

About

Léonard Mbulle-Nziege is a Senior Consultant in Economic Intelligence at Concerto, based in Cape Town. He advises businesses on political risk, due diligence, and electoral analysis in Africa. Contact Léonard at lnm@concerto-pr.com to learn more.

QUICK INSIGHTS

South Africa intends to leverage its strong ties with other G20 members to offset the effects of its tensions with the US
President Ramaphosa’s Africa-focused G20 agenda reflects the country’s ambition to assert itself as the chief advocate of the continent’s interests.
Despite this year’s ambitious G20 agenda, changing geopolitical and domestic policy priorities in North America, Europe, and Asia pose a major challenge to Ramaphosa’s goals.

Diplomatic fallout with the US weighs heavily on South African G20 presidency

The first African G20 presidency was hailed as a landmark moment for South Africa and the continent given its potential to further the interests of developing countries. However, its leadership stint started negatively, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent boycotting meetings in early February. Their absence was the culmination of deteriorating South Africa-US relations since 2022, driven by Pretoria’s warm ties with China, Russia, and Iran, as well as its support of Palestine. Additionally, the adoption of a land expropriation law in January – which the US says discriminates against South Africa’s white population – led to the suspension of bilateral aid to the country the following month amid frosty relations. The US’ stance towards South Africa suggests that it is unlikely to send senior representatives to future G20 events, including the heads of state summit in November 2025.

South Africa will strengthen collaboration with G20 members to mitigate the impact of tensions with the US and promote its Africa-focused agenda

Despite the US’ stance, President Ramaphosa will seek broad-based support for his plan of action, which G20 members – aside from the US – have endorsed. Pretoria will also seek counsel from India, Indonesia, and Brazil which navigated geopolitical complexities during their respective G20 presidencies. President Ramaphosa's top priority will revolve around lobbying for debt restructuring and relief at a critical time for the continent’s economy: public debt levels across Africa have risen by 183% since 2010, according to UNCTAD. As of early 2025, nine African countries face distressed debt situations, with Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zambia defaulting on repayments in the last five years. Meanwhile, another 18 are at high risk of debt distress. As part of its G20 presidency, South Africa aims to build on existing G20 and Paris Club initiatives to support countries experiencing debt vulnerability. President Ramaphosa also aims to mobilise more climate finance for developing countries, notably concessional and grant funding. Africa requires USD 56 billion in climate adaptation financing annually. With the US pivoting away from climate finance – and European G20 members facing structural domestic economic and political challenges, Ramaphosa faces major challenges in closing the continent’s climate funding shortfall. Relatedly, the push for the local processing of critical minerals on the continent represents another key pillar of this year’s G20 climate agenda. While the G20 will seek to mobilise greater private sector support to develop processing infrastructure on the continent, it faces several structural barriers. These include energy and transport infrastructure gaps that hinder the growth of value-adding beneficiation activities. China’s dominant role across all segments of the critical minerals supply chain – including processing – means it is likely to defend its competitive advantage.

Domestic priorities overshadow South Africa’s G20 priorities

Despite broad support for South Africa’s G20 presidency, urgent domestic matters compelled finance ministers from Brazil, Canada, India, and Japan to miss the February G20 proceedings. Crucially, the drastic reduction in overseas aid announced by the US is also set to hinder South Africa’s G20 policy priorities. While less high-profile, the cuts recently announced by the UK, European Commission, France, Germany, and Sweden pose further headwinds to Ramaphosa’s agenda. Similarly, the US’ expected withdrawal from the Paris Agreement constitutes an additional threat. Lastly, the composition of Africa’s debt mix is a major barrier to Ramaphosa’s calls for urgent debt relief: private creditors account for the largest proportion of external debt at 43%. Obtaining concessions from Eurobond holders on debt restructuring or relief initiatives will be a slow and challenging process, as experienced by Ghana and Zambia following their defaults.