US elections: What lies ahead for Africa?

Analysis

Africa will remain at the bottom of the US foreign policy regardless of a Harris or Trump victory. However, due to Africa’s increasing geopolitical importance, the US is expected to maintain an ongoing engagement level since 2022. Regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins, the next administration will encounter a shifting landscape in Africa, marked by democratic backsliding, a rise in insurgencies and heightened competition from non-Western partners.

QUICK INSIGHTS

US engagement in Africa is likely to be marked by a degree of continuity, with the race for critical minerals remaining a strategic priority.
While the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has bipartisan support, the conditions of its renewal under a potential Republican presidency remain uncertain.
African countries are increasingly diversifying their diplomatic, commercial, and security partnerships and growing closer to emerging and middle-power countries, which has major implications for US influence across the continent.

US policy in Africa: between strategic commitment and declining influence

Trump left much to be desired regarding Africa during his last term. Under his administration, policy was mainly oriented towards countering Russian and Chinese influence on the continent and counter-terrorism in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes regions. Regarding economic engagement, discussions began in 2020 with Kenya to establish a free trade agreement. Additionally, the Prosper Africa programme, launched in 2019 to encourage bilateral trade and investment, will have facilitated 1,695 transactions totalling USD 63.5 billion across 41 African countries by the close of 2024. The Trump administration also maintained annual aid of USD 7 billion during the 2017-2020 timeframe, which was on par with the amount provided by the Obama-Biden administration. While Africa has historically not been a US foreign policy priority, President Joe Biden has pursued the most extensive engagement with Africa over the last 30 years. Vice President Kamala Harris, First Lady Jill Biden and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen conducted high-profile visits in 2023. In January 2024, Secretary of State Antony Blinken toured Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria and Angola to present the US Africa-Partnership programme, promoting trade and investment in Africa while supporting social policies. Symbolically, in December, President Biden is scheduled to visit Angola, the first trip by a US president to Africa since 2015. The hosting of the US-Africa Summit in December 2022, the second edition since 2014, served as the blueprint for creating the Presidential Advisory Council for African Diaspora Engagement. Biden also supported the African Union’s admission to the G20 in 2023 and has equally endorsed appointing two African countries as permanent members of the UN Security Council, albeit without veto power. Despite these achievements, there were noteworthy setbacks, particularly the raft of military coups in Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. These events led to the expulsion of US troops from Chad and Niger in 2024, upending US security engagements in the Sahel and opening an avenue for Russia and Russian-linked mercenaries to fill the security vacuum.

Prospects for Africa: A bit of change but more of the same for US-Africa relations

A Trump victory would have swift diplomatic consequences. Typically, a change in administration prompts the resignation of politically appointed US ambassadors, resulting in a more substantial turnover if Trump wins. Moreover, the lengthy timeframe for the appointment and Senate confirmation of new ambassadors could hamper the evolution of bilateral relations in the near term. Although the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants eligible African countries tariff-free access to US markets, has bipartisan support, its renewal in 2025 remains uncertain under a potential Republican presidency. Trump could pursue bilateral agreements with larger economies like Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa. If AGOA were renewed under Trump, eligibility standards could be strengthened, limiting the number of beneficiary countries. A Harris presidency would see the continuation of AGOA, and closer synergies established between this framework and the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCTA). More projects could be initiated under the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), especially in relation to the Just Energy Transition. There will also be support for public health institutions like CDC Africa and civil society organisations in terms of democracy, human rights, and governance promotion. Securing critical mineral supply chains, dominated by China, is a key geopolitical objective for the US, irrespective of the administration. This will see continued support for the US-backed Lobito Corridor, a railway project across Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, that will enable US and Western access to mineral resources, including cobalt, copper, and lithium. These efforts will be supported by the US-led Mineral Security Partnership – a coalition of 14 countries that aims to secure the supply of mining resources and the financing of key infrastructure. In the security domain, the US will seek new partnerships with coastal Gulf of Guinea states, including Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Gabon, while simultaneously trying to re-engage with Sahel military-led governments. Interestingly, in the event of a Trump victory, the US could oversee its Horn of Africa by engaging with the self-declared state of Somaliland, which has ties with US allies, Ethiopia, and the UAE. However, this would likely raise regional tensions as Turkey (a NATO ally) has promised to defend Somalia’s sovereignty. At the same time, Egypt, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia and the African Union would all oppose such a development.

US will compete with a multitude of countries for influence in Africa

Irrespective of what policy orientation the US adopts towards African countries, the latter will continue to considerably diversify their diplomatic, commercial, and security partnerships, making overtures towards emerging and middle power countries. Besides China, Russia, and Turkey – who are well-implanted across the continent – India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are well positioned to vie for influence on the continent, as well as fellow Western counterparts like France, Germany, and the UK. Post-election, if the US seeks to remain globally competitive, Africa can no longer be ignored and a bipartisan political consensus will have to be reached to reset the US-African relations.